The call Wednesday by the President of the European Central Bank, Mario Draghi, the drafting of a "growth pact" strengthens the hand of Francois Hollande, who has made the reborn ; negotiation of European fiscal pact a priority.
The Socialist candidate, favorite in the polls to eleven days of the second round of presidential elections, expected probably not see the Frankfurt Institute think as he does, even if differences There are significant in their theses.
"We have a fiscal pact," said Mario Draghi before the Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs of the European Parliament in Brussels. "Right now, what stands in my eyes, is having a growth pact (…) So we must go back and make a pact."
To the President of the ECB, it is not to renegotiate the Treaty of European fiscal discipline early March signed by 25 of the 27 countries of the European Union to force member states to reduce their deficits, with the key sanctions, but rather to take a separate initiative on growth.
But Mario Draghi has obviously realized the difficulties faced by several countries in the euro area, Italy and Spain in the lead, who see their plans for fiscal consolidation undermined by the recession.
The president of Italy, Mario Monti, has said in mid-April that he would now focusing on the growth of austerity policies likely to worsen the plight of Italy.
"Everything, everything, everything we do now must benefit the growth," said the Italian leader. Rome now expects a contraction of 1.2% of the activity for 2012, against 0.4% in its previous forecast, last December.
"SURPRISING RESPONSE"
This is a turning point in the policy pursued by Mario Monti, who defended the austerity since his arrival at the head of a government of technocrats in November 2011.
In a note published analysis of a few minutes after the intervention of Mario Draghi, Barclays Bank stressed the importance of its position.
"It was an amazing response and it illustrates the level of concern of the ECB on the economic outlook in the euro area", can you read.
Barclays notes that the President of the ECB was the first to talk about the need for a European fiscal pact in late 2011 and it was quickly acted upon.
Mario Draghi has also not hesitated to make enemies in Germany by opening the floodgates of credit to banks to avoid a liquidity crisis.
The remaining question is what could be the future shape of this potential "Growth Pact".
Francois Hollande maintains that it will require, if elected, a renegotiation of the pact to include a budget component growth would take for example the form of Eurobonds to finance major projects, for example in energy.
But this claim is opposed by many countries, including Germany, where it is impossible to reopen a treaty already signed and ratified by the parliaments of two countries, Greece and Portugal, and more soon.
Dissension ON THE ROLE OF THE ECB
German diplomats have approached Francois Hollande to ask him to withdraw his application, noting it would be easier to Berlin to negotiate a pact for growth if the prior fiscal discipline é ; silent endorsed by Paris.
"Why do you create such a misunderstanding as to the substance we agree?" asked one of them.
The socialist leader told them that he accepted the whole aspect of deficit reduction treaty but he could not give up a flagship project of his campaign.
"You can not drop this claim," he told them according to a German official that he met and who wants to believe that this is a campaign posture.
Francois Hollande account on the new balance of power that would create his election in the European Union, the first step in his opinion a change of majority in Germany, where e Legislative elections will be held in 2013.
But other claims made by the candidate may make compromise more difficult to achieve.
The favorite in the polls and is said to favor a rate cut from the European Central Bank to support growth and to direct loans to countries in difficulty, rather than through support for banks .
"I know that the Germans are quite hostile, well it's part of the discussion. If you think it is not necessary to vote and it is not necessary to renegotiate as well stay home, "he said last Friday
While Jerome Cahuzac
. for the Budget with Francois Hollande, said in an interview with Reuters that it could be done without compromising because the statutes of the European Central Bank (ECB), Germany and the ECB believe this écornerait independence of the institute in Frankfurt
… …… "The ECB must act within its core mandate and the Treaty", which assign price stability as a priority. "The limits of the Treaty prohibits monetary financing ( debts of the States). "