European stock markets and debt markets Monday suffer political uncertainties, the first round of presidential elections in France and the failure of the budget discussions in the Netherlands Low-raising fears of further complications to a settlement of the debt crisis in the eurozone.
Markets are also affected by sluggish activity indicators in the euro zone and China.
In France, the second round of presidential elections on May 6 oppose the socialist Francois Hollande and the outgoing president Nicolas Sarkozy, who obtained respectively 28.63% and 27.18% of popular vote final figures of the Ministry of Interior.
"In general, markets have begun to punish the weak proposals for Francois Hollande to improve the competitiveness of the French economy and lack of leeway policies of Nicolas Sarkozy if he could be elected ", wrote in a note Exane BNP Paribas.
Around noon, the difference (spread) between the rate of return of government bonds to 10 years and its French equivalent German (Bund) is widening three basis points (bps), to 142 bps, after reaching 149 bps in the morning.
This gap, which was only 110 bps at the beginning, had reached 151 basis points Thursday after a rumor about a possible deterioration in the sovereign rating of France.
"FRANCE IN DOOR-TO-FALSE"
The performance of the French loan to 10 years in the secondary market amounted to 3.10% after exceeding 3.16% in the morning, against 3 , 09% at the close Friday. The rate of the 10-year Bund fell to 1.67% against 1.72% in last weekend.
"If there is a little relief due to the fact that the second round oppose Sarkozy and Holland, it puts France cantilevered overhang with Germany on the future of the euro," said Marc Ostwald , strategist at Monument Securities.
"And it will not help them move toward the union budget, or to allay market fears about the fact that the only solution lies in Eurobonds."
For many analysts, the uncertainty on the French political situation will remain until the June parliamentary, with the government's announcement will come out and the decisions it will take to reduce die ; ficits budget.
"If Francois Hollande was actually elected, the tensions in financial markets that French does not dissipate during the summer when the new government would present its plan to return to the balance of public finances in 2017 and would confirm with Brussels, "warns CM-CIC Securities.
THE DUTCH CDS AT THE HIGHEST SINCE JANUARY
Investors are also watching the Netherlands, where Prime Minister plans to resign after the failure of budget discussions undertaken in early March with the PVV party which does not belong to government but who supported Parliament.
"The Netherlands could be a problem because so far it was a stable partner in the euro area. (The Dutch situation) reflects increasing tensions in the area. This is really a problem for the market, "said Christian Stocker, Unicredit
. The spread between borrowing born erlandais 10-year Bund and the reference is widening 12 bps to 73 bps and that of the Spanish loan of 7 bps to 432 bps, the Spanish rate in excess of 10 years to the new 6%
. In the market for CDS (Credit Default Swaps) sovereign, a sort of insurance policy against a default, the spread of title 5 years in the Netherlands in the morning hit its highest level since January to 128 bp (9 bp) and that of France is back above the 200 bp Matiné e, to 207 bp (8 bp), according to data from Markit
. On the equity side, the CAC 40 lost 1.69% to 3.134.69 points, the benchmark index of the Paris Bourse now showing a loss of 0.79% since the beginning of the year.
The decline in the CAC 40 is less pronounced than that of the Frankfurt Stock Exchange, whose index DAX, more industrial, abandoned 2.49%, and that the pan-European Euro Stoxx 50 index (-1.97 %).
Instead of Amsterdam loses 2.44% and 2.77% in Madrid.
"There is no real penalty in particular France, the declines are fairly uniform. Should there really be a sanction of scholarships, it would happen more after the results of the second round. For now, the market is more patient, "said Yohan Salleron Mandarine Gestion fund manager at
. The market reaction to concerns about the political future of the euro area is all the more violent it comes at a contecte economic recession
. The index of manufacturing activity in the euro area, distributed in the morning, fell to 46.0, the lowest since June 2009, against 47.7 in March and 48.0 expected. Above all, the German manufacturing sector contracted at its strongest pace in nearly three years, casting doubt on the capacity of the largest economy in the euro area increase growth in the region
. In China, the activity index still reflects a contraction in the manufacturing sector (49.1 against 48.3 in March). But the situation seems to improve with a rebound in the sub-index of orders to 48.9 against 47.4 in March.